What the past tells us about modern sea-level rise

By Alton Parrish via IIAI, December 2013

Researchers from the University of Southampton and the Australian National University report that sea-level rise since the industrial revolution has been fast by natural standards and – at current rates – may reach 80cm above the modern level by 2100 and 2.5 metres by 2200.

The team used geological evidence of the past few million years to derive a background pattern of natural sea-level rise. This was compared with historical tide-gauge and satellite observations of sea-level change for the ‘global warming’ period, since the industrial revolution. The study, which was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (iGlass consortium) and Australian Research Council (Laureate Fellowship), is published in the journal Scientific Reports.

Credit: Wikipedia

Lead author Professor Eelco Rohling, from the Australian National University and formerly of the University of Southampton, says: “Our natural background pattern from geological evidence should not be confused with a model-based prediction. It instead uses data to illustrate how fast sea level might change if only normal, natural processes were at work. There is no speculation about any new mechanisms that might develop due to man-made global warming. Put simply, we consider purely what nature has done before, and therefore could do again.”

Co-author Dr Gavin Foster, a Reader in Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton, who is based at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS), explains: “Geological data showed that sea level would likely rise by nine metres or more as the climate system adjusts to today’s greenhouse effect. But the timescale for this was unclear. So we studied past rates and timescales of sea-level rise, and used these to determine the natural background pattern.”

Co-author Dr Ivan Haigh, lecturer in coastal oceanography at the University of Southampton and also based at NOCS, adds: “Historical observations show a rising sea level from about 1800 as sea water warmed up and melt water from glaciers and ice fields flowed into the oceans. Around 2000, sea level was rising by about three mm per year. That may sound slow, but it produces a significant change over time.”

The natural background pattern allowed the team to see whether recent sea-level changes are exceptional or within the normal range, and whether they are faster, equal, or slower than natural changes.

Professor Rohling concludes: “For the first time, we can see that the modern sea-level rise is quite fast by natural standards. Based on our natural background pattern, only about half the observed sea-level rise would be expected.

“Although fast, the observed rise still is (just) within the ‘natural range’. While we are within this range, our current understanding of ice-mass loss is adequate. Continued monitoring of future sea-level rise will show if and when it goes outside the natural range. If that happens, then this means that our current understanding falls short, potentially with severe consequences.”

Contacts and sources:
Peter Franklin
University of Southampton

Incredible Map Shows Vanishing Land Due To Rising Ocean

Sea levels are rising faster than expected from global warming, and University of Colorado geologist Bill Hay has a good idea why. The last official IPCC report in 2007 projected a global sea level rise between 0.2 and 0.5 meters by the year 2100. But current sea-level rise measurements meet or exceed the high end of that range and suggest a rise of one meter or more by the end of the century.

Past and possible future changes in sea level

Map by Emanuel Soeding, Christian-Albrechts University, using U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

“What’s missing from the models used to forecast sea-level rise are critical feedbacks that speed everything up,” says Hay. He will be presenting some of these feedbacks in a talk on Sunday, 4 Nov., at the meeting of The Geological Society of America in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA.

One of those feedbacks involves Arctic sea ice, another the Greenland ice cap, and another soil moisture and groundwater mining.

“There is an Arctic sea ice connection,” says Hay, despite the fact that melting sea ice — which is already in the ocean — does not itself raise sea level. Instead, it plays a role in the overall warming of the Arctic, which leads to ice losses in nearby Greenland and northern Canada. When sea ice melts, Hay explains, there is an oceanographic effect of releasing more fresh water from the Arctic, which is then replaced by inflows of brinier, warmer water from the south.

“So it’s a big heat pump that brings heat to the Arctic,” says Hay. “That’s not in any of the models.” That warmer water pushes the Arctic toward more ice-free waters, which absorb sunlight rather than reflect it back into space like sea ice does. The more open water there is, the more heat is trapped in the Arctic waters, and the warmer things can get.

Then there are those gigantic stores of ice in Greenland and Antarctica. During the last interglacial period, sea level rose 10 meters due to the melting of all that ice — without any help from humans. New data suggests that the sea-level rise in the oceans took place over a few centuries, according to Hay.

“You can lose most of the Greenland ice cap in a few hundred years, not thousands, just under natural conditions,” says Hay. “There’s no telling how fast it can go with this spike of carbon dioxide we are adding to the atmosphere.”

This possibility was brought home this last summer as Greenland underwent a stunning, record-setting melt. The ice streams, lubricated by water at their base, are speeding up.

Hay notes, “Ten years ago we didn’t know much about water under the Antarctic ice cap.” But it is there, and it allows the ice to move — in some places even uphill due to the weight of the ice above it.

“It’s being squeezed like toothpaste out of a tube,” explains Hay. The one thing that’s holding all that ice back from emptying into the sea is the grounded ice shelves acting like plugs on bottles at the ends of the coastal glaciers. “Nobody has any idea how fast that ice will flow into the oceans once the ice shelves are gone.”

Another missing feedback is the groundwater being mined all over the world to mitigate droughts. That water is ultimately added to the oceans (a recent visualization of this effect in the U.S. was posted by NASA’s Earth

Observatory: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79228).

All of these are positive feedbacks speeding up the changes in climate and sea-level rise.

“You would expect negative feedbacks to creep in at some point,” says Hay. “But in climate change, every feedback seems to go positive.” The reason is that Earth’s climate seems to have certain stable states. Between those states things are unstable and can change quickly. “Under human prodding, the system wants to go into a new climate state.”

Source: Geological Society of America

How will the Rise in Sea Level impact us?

On 18 March 2012, based on the “Webbot prediction” published on 29 January 2012, Pastor Wind shared the third point about the earth concerning the phenomenon produced by the change of sea level.

Founder of Webbot, Clif High has started to talk about this phenomenon in 1999 but mainstream media has been covering the truth with lies, however, it cannot no longer hide it in the future!

The 95th volume of “2012 The Glorious Hope” on 27 November 2011 has shared:

The nearing of Planet X towards the earth will cause solar wind to strike the earth, leading to an increase in the energy of the earth’s core and an expansion of the earth.

The expansion of the earth will lead to the skin effect on the earth’s surface. To put it simply, the skin effect is similar to the blowing of balloon. When the air pressure increases inside the balloon, the balloon’s skin will be thinned.

The entire earth’s crust is like a big plastic bag enclosing the earth, like a piece of skin. This skin-like crust is uneven; the higher places are lands while the lower are sea beds.

When the earth expands, the skin effect will thin the crust and sea beds will be pulled up by two sides. But the coastal areas will be pulled under the sea.

In addition, the increase of the core’s energy causes temperature rise on the earth and the melting of the northern and southern glaciers which increases the sea water volume and then sea level.

When such large volume of sea water flows into the earth’s largest Pacific plate, Pacific plate will sink due to the weight of water and phenomena like sinking, continuous flooding or the drowning of coastal land will occur in places and island areas along the plate boundaries.

In November 2011 last year, a report shows that America’s top climate scientists predicted that among the world’s 33 cities with population of 8 million,at least 20 coastal cities are threatened by the rise of water level, including Thailand’s Bangkok, China’s Shanghai and Tianjin, Japan’s Tokyo and Osaka, Bangladesh’s Dhaka, Argentina’s Buenos Aires, Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro, Egypt’s Alexandria and Cairo, India’s Mumbai and Calcutta, Indonesia’s Jakarta, and New York and Los Angeles and other cities of the United States.

According to the report of Singapore's "United Morning Post", by then, the coastal locations settled earliest by immigrants in the States, including Virginia, Jamestown colonial town, pier for immigrant landing in Florida will be submerged in the sea.

Famous locations like Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Boston, Miami, New Orleans, New York of the states will also face submersion threat in the future.

And Venice, famous Italian city penned by Shakespeare and the "Pearl of the Adriatic", is also prone to disappearing in water. It is reported that the city of Venice was originally a place of swamp. Due to the rise of sea level caused by global warming coupled with the over-exploitation of groundwater, the ground continues sinking. Not only cities, countries also face the same crisis. Tuvalu, island country of the South Pacific, may become the first drowned country.

With the global rise of sea level, scientists predict that Maldives in the Indian Ocean, known as the "last paradise on earth", would disappear in the Indian Ocean.

On 9 March, 2012, it is reported that affected by climate change and sea level rise, Kiribati close to the equator, an Oceania country, and islands only a few feet away from the sea are vulnerable to drowning.

In addition, groundwater of some islands is contaminated by seawater intrusion.

The government recently spent $ 9.6 million to purchase an area of ​​nearly 4 million square meters of land in the Fiji Islands for the evacuation of one hundred three thousand nationals to Fiji when necessary.

Furthermore, due to melting glaciers and the gush of water from the earth’s center, fresh water flows into the sea. However, fresh water is lighter than salt water, thus, fresh water floats on the ocean's surface. Under solar heat, it is easier for fresh water to evaporate to become clouds than salt water. The volume of cloud greatly increases. Therefore, in recent years, heavy rain and snow storms and floods often appear suddenly all over the world.

That sinking feeling in Thailand

Telegraph poles poking out from the sea stand like graveyard memorials to the villagers that now lie beneath the waves.

Environment campaigners Greenpeace say the fate of villages like these along Thailand’s gulf coast are firm evidence of rising sea levels triggered by global warming.

They are warning the capital is also under threat.

“Because this area is not far from Bangkok, this is an emergency matter which should make the Thai people aware of what’s happening.”

In fact, Bangkok is facing a dual threat that Thai officials say could see the city under water if urgent action isn’t taken.

While sea levels may be rising, Bangkok is also sinking as ground waters pumped out from beneath.

The country’s head of disaster warning says a massive dike is needed to protect it from a watery end.

“If nothing can be done, you know, Bangkok would be at least 50 cm or 1 m under water.”