June 26, 2013 - MADAGASCAR - Madagascar is in the grips of a largely uncontrolled locust plague and risks a serious food crisis. A large-scale emergency control campaign urgently requires a minimum of $22 million in funding to start in time for the next crop planting season in September. So far, FAO emergency appeals for Madagascar remain severely underfunded.
By September, FAO expects that two-thirds of the country will be infested by locusts.
Some 13 million people’s food security and livelihoods are at stake, or nearly 60 percent of the island’s total population. Nine million of those people are directly dependent on agriculture for food and income. Sounding the alarm – more loudly FAO has issued various warnings since August 2012 calling for financial support.
FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva emphasized that prevention and early action are key. “If we don’t act now, the plague could last years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars. This could very well be a last window of opportunity to avert an extended crisis,” he said.
Timely control of the locust upsurge in Madagascar at an early stage would have cost $ 14.5 million in 2011-1012, but FAO only received half the funding necessary. Another campaign had to be launched, but that received barely a quarter of the required funds in 2011/2012.
When the Sahel region experienced a locust upsurge in 2003-2005, the costs of control operations exceeded $ 570 million, in addition to the economic damages in terms of lost crops and food aid.
Preventive control measures normally cost $3.3 million per year for the 10 affected Sahelian countries. So intervening only when the situation reaches a crisis point cost roughly the same as 170 years of prevention.
In order to have all the supplies and personnel in place to mount a wide-scale anti-locust campaign starting in September, funding should be allocated by July.
FAO’s locust control programme needs to be fully funded in order to monitor the locust situation throughout the whole contaminated area and to carry out well-targeted aerial control operations. Otherwise, undetected or uncontrolled locust populations will continue to breed and produce more swarms.
The plague would therefore last several years, controlling it will be lengthier and more expensive and it will severely affect food security, nutrition and livelihoods.
The complete three-year programme, which is needed to return the locust plague to a recession, requires more than $41.5 million over the next three years.
According to a recent FAO assessment mission on the impact of the current locust plague in Madagascar, in parts of the country rice and maize losses due to the locusts vary from 40 to 70 percent of the crop, with 100 percent losses on certain plots.
A joint Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission, supported by FAO, IFAD and WFP and in close cooperation with the Malagasy Government, is currently on the ground to measure the locust plague’s damages to food security and livelihoods. More detailed data analysis will be available in July, but the resources to start preparation for the field actions have to be available now. Major impact on food securityAccording to FAO estimates, there could be losses in rice production of up to 630 000 tonnes, or about 25 percent of total demand for rice in Madagascar. This would severely affect food and nutrition security and livelihoods of the most vulnerable.
Rice is the main staple in the country, where 80 percent of the population lives on less than a dollar per day. One and a half million hectares will need to be treated by aerial spraying during the 2013/2014 campaign. The three-year FAO programme includes:
improving the monitoring and analysis of the locust situation;
large-scale aerial and ground spraying and related training;
monitoring and mitigating the effect of control operations on health and the environment;
measuring the impact of anti-locust campaigns and the damages to crops and pasture.
The nation’s most expensive weather event in 2012 was not Superstorm Sandy, but the continuing drought, according to a report by the World Wildlife Fund. The WWF says that more than 62 percent of the United States is still experiencing drought conditions, which will remain in effect into early 2013 at least. Major findings in the WWF’s year-to-date review, issued Dec. 6, are:
U.S. Drought - The Costliest Weather Disaster Of 2012. Most extreme weather: Through November, weather in the contiguous U.S. has been the most extreme on record. Costly year: 2012 has the potential to be the most costly year on record. WWF estimates that costs from 2012’s 11 largest weather-related disasters in the U.S. will cost between $160 billion and $235 billion. According to data assembled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the period 1980 through 2011, 2005 was the costliest year, with $187.2 billion (2012 dollars) in damages (Hurricane Katrina alone accounted for $146.3 billion of that). Drought disaster: The costliest weather disaster of 2012 has been the worsening drought, which could reduce Gross Domestic Product this year by as much as 1 percent, or by roughly $150 billion. Impacts from the drought will spill over into the new year, which will start with far more serious drought conditions than at the beginning of 2012. As of Dec. 4, more than 62 percent of the Unites States was in drought, twice the area in drought a year ago. The “Seasonal Drought Outlook” issued by NOAA Dec. 6 indicates that while conditions will improve in some parts of the U.S., the drought will persist or intensify over most drought-affected areas. Hottest year on record: 2012 is on track to be the hottest year on record in the contiguous U.S. According to NOAA “It appears virtually certain that 2012 will surpass the current record (1998, 54.3°F) as the warmest year for the nation.” - Daily Gazette.
U.S. Drought Revives Old Water War Among River States. The water wars are raging again in America’s heartland, where drought-stricken states are pleading for the increasingly scarce water of the Missouri River – to drink from their faucets, irrigate their crops and float the barges that carry billions of dollars of agricultural products to market. From Montana to West Virginia, officials on both sides have written President Barack Obama urging him to intervene – or not – in a long-running dispute over whether water from the Missouri’s upstream reservoirs should be released into the Mississippi River to ease low water levels that have imperiled commercial traffic. The quarrel pits boaters, fishermen and tourism interests against communities downstream and companies that rely on the Mississippi to do business. “We are back to the age-old old battle of recreation and irrigation verses navigation,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill, a Democrat from Missouri. If the water is held back, downstream states warn that shipping on the Mississippi could come to a near standstill sometime after Christmas along a 180-mile stretch between St. Louis and the southern Illinois town of Cairo. But if the water is released, upstream communities worry that the toll of the drought could be even worse next year for farms and towns that depend on the Missouri. - Daily Chronicle.
Is The Drought Coming Back In Houston? Much of the area received some much needed rain this week, but even with the rain there are concerns about a returning drought across the state. "October and November of this year were the five driest October and Novembers on record. So this is not a good start for the winter. We have seen drought conditions getting worse across much of the state," said Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook currently shows a persistent drought through the middle of the country including a developing drought in southeast Texas. "We have very hot waters off the Atlantic and that is helping to create heat waves and hurricanes," said Evelyn Browning - Garriss, editor of The Browning Newsletter. "The interior of the United States, including, unfortunately, Texas, tends to be slightly drier than normal and hotter than normal, so even what rain they get evaporates quickly." Browning-Garriss is a historical climatologist who advises everyone from Texas cattle raisers to Midwestern utilities to Canadian banks about what the coming season will bring. "This drought, I would expect to ease up over the next two years, but Texans need to start thinking like they did in the 1950s, when water was a very special resource and they had to be intelligent about the way they used it," said Browning-Garriss. "Normally this is the time of year we see the ground get wet and stay wet through the rest of the winter. We see reservoirs recharging. None of that has happened yet and it is like the recharge season is two months late already and counting," said Nielsen-Gammon. "In most of Texas, this drought is now in its third year and if we don't get significantly above normal rain fall, then we will be talking about a drought comparable to the 1950s." - Click2Houston.
WATCH: Devastating drought conditions in Texas.
Catastrophic Drought In The Horn Of Africa Delays Migrating Birds. The catastrophic drought last year in the Horn of Africa affected millions of people but also caused the extremely late arrival into northern Europe of several migratory songbird species, a study published December 6 in Science shows. Details of the migration route was revealed by data collected from small backpacks fitted on birds showing that the delay resulted from an extended stay in the Horn of Africa. The extensive 2011 drought in the Horn of Africa had significant consequences for European songbirds such as thrush nightingale and red-backed shrike. These birds visit northern Europe every spring to mate and take advantage of ample summer food resources. However, their spring migrating route from southern Africa to northern latitudes passes directly through the Horn of Africa, where the birds stop to feed and refuel for the next stage of their migration. "Our research was able to couple the birds' delayed arrival in Europe with that stopover in the Horn of Africa. Here they stayed about a week longer in 2011 than in the years before and after 2011. Because of the drought, the birds would have needed longer to feed and gain energy for their onward travel, causing delayed arrival and breeding in Europe. This supports our theory that migrating animals in general are dependent on a series of areas to reach their destination,"says Associate Professor Anders Tøttrup from the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate at the University of Copenhagen. -Science Daily.
Ongoing Drought Raises Big Concern For Agricultural Future. Agriculture is critical to Nebraska’s future, but Gov. Dave Heineman said the ongoing drought presents a challenge to the future of the state’s largest industry, which represents about 45 percent of the state’s gross domestic product. From massive flooding along the Missouri River in 2011 to a massive drought that has engulfed all of Nebraska this year, Heineman told members of the Nebraska Farmers Union Friday that the weather has made a 180-degree turn from one extreme to another. And the main concern is now “what is going to happen next year and the year after that,” he said... “What I really worry about is what is going to happen next year,” he said. “I think there is going to be a great deal of tension if we don’t get enough moisture, between agriculture users of water resources, businesses and cities.”... “But what we are concerned about, if we go through a second or third year of the drought, is its impact on agriculture,” he said. “Looking down the road, an extended drought will definitely have an impact on our state and it will be a difficult situation.” - The Independent.
Experts: Winter Wheat Farmers May Abandon More Than 25% of New Wheat Crop. US winter wheat farmers could abandon more than a quarter of the new wheat crop due to devastating weather, though decisions on abandonment will not be made until spring, experts said this week. Historic drought, coupled with record warm weather and high winds sweeping across the Plains, have left the new crop in the worst condition in decades. With no significant improvement soon, many farmers could give up on their wheat acres. Abandonment levels could exceed 25 percent, said Mark Hodges, a wheat industry consultant and executive director of Plains Grains Inc, which represents producers from around the Plains. "The potential is there," he said. "We are nowhere near a normal crop. But Mother Nature is very fickle," Hodges said. "Should we get some moisture, and I'm not saying the likelihood is high ... we could still produce some wheat. But the likelihood of significant moisture is not great before spring." - Business Recorder. U.S. Drought Expands, Concerns Mount About Wheat and Rivers. Drought continued to expand through the central United States even as winter weather sets in, wreaking havoc on the nation's new wheat crop and on movement of key commodities as major shipping waterways grow shallow. Unseasonably warm conditions have exacerbated the harm caused by the lack of needed rainfall. The average temperature for the contiguous United States last month was 44.1 degrees Fahrenheit, 2.1 degrees above the 20th century average, and tying 2004 as the 20th warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The year-to-date marks the warmest first 11 months of any year on record for the contiguous United States, and for the entire year, 2012 will most likely surpass the current record as the warmest year for the nation, NOAA said. The warm weather accelerates evaporation of any precipitation that does fall, and keeps plants - like the new wheat crop - trying to grow, rather than slipping into normal winter dormancy. "We have not seen hardly any rain or snow around the Plains states. It is still very dry. And with these temperatures when you are having 60- or 70 degrees and high winds... it's going to be problematic," said Brian Fuchs, climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Areas of drought expansion last week were noted across parts of Texas, central Louisiana, east-central Missouri, eastern Kansas, and the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, according to the Drought Monitor's weekly compilation of data gathered by federal and academic scientists and issued each Thursday. The U.S. High Plains, which includes key farm states of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Kansas, are the hardest hit. In that region, 58.39 percent of the land area is in extreme or exceptional drought, the two worst categories of drought. A week ago, the tally was 57.89 percent. Nebraska remained by far the most parched state in the nation with fully 100 percent of the farm state in severe or worse drought, and 77.46 percent of the state considered in "exceptional" drought - the worst level, according to the Drought Monitor. Overall, roughly 62.37 percent of the contiguous United States was in at least "moderate" drought as of Dec. 4, a slight improvement from 62.55 percent a week earlier, The portion of the contiguous United States under "extreme" or "exceptional" drought expanded, however, to 20.63 percent from 20.12 percent. - Reuters.
No matter what time of year it is, weather is always a key factor for crop markets. In general, crop prices declined late in 2011, but they rebounded in early 2012. The key factor in the recent price moves has been weather developments in key corn and soybean production regions of Argentina and Brazil. Droughts in those key producing countries have led to declines in production forecasts, and these lower production forecasts have boosted prospects for U.S. corn and soybean exports.
The drought has been severe in Argentina. Some key growing areas received almost no rain in December suffering through the worst drought in at least 50 years. It was still drier than normal in January but most areas received between 50 percent and 75 percent of normal precipitation. Weather conditions have improved recently with good rains in northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe. It is too early to know for sure how much the rains will help but drought conditions have eased at least for now. February is midseason for both corn and first crop soybeans in the region so rainfall now can have a significant impact on production, especially for soybeans. Early in the season, Argentina’s corn production was expected to be near 27.5 million tonnes. As the drought has persisted the size of the crop has been revised down. USDA’ estimate in January was 26 million tonnes and in February the figure was 22 million tonnes. Crop production estimates from private forecasters in Argentina are as low as 20 million tonnes or less. With a smaller crop in Argentina, USDA raised the 2011/12 forecast for U.S. corn exports to 1.70 billion bushels, up from 1.65 billion in January.
Soybean and corn production prospects in Brazil have also been affected by the dry weather so far this growing season. Soybean production in Rio Grande do Sul is put at around 8 million tonnes for this year, down from more than 11 million tonnes last season. Yield potential has also been reduced in other parts of the country. USDA forecasts Brazil’s soybean production of 72 million tonnes, but some other forecasters put production down at 70 million tonnes. Brazil’s corn crop is put at 61 million tonnes, unchanged from the January forecast. The drought in South America is attributed to the influence of the La Niña weather pattern in the Pacific. Temperatures have been well below normal since last summer and forecast models show the condition remaining in place, albeit weakening, until spring. Models indicate that ocean temperatures could move above normal by late spring. The La Niña weather pattern affected the drought in the southern U.S. last year and weather forecast maps show the dry weather across the south continuing at least through May.
Temperatures in the last couple of weeks in Europe have been so cold that it is logical to assume that there has been some winterkill. Rapeseed is of course the major oilseed crop there and the agronomists believe that there has been some damage. That speculation has supported soyoil prices this week. The head of the agriculture department of Ukraine’s meteorological service says that the country’s winter grain crops have been hit by record low temperatures and that production could fall by between 42 and 58 percent. The crops got off to a poor start due to drought in July through November and were in poor shape before the severe freeze hit. There was only modest snow to protect the crops from the very cold weather. Production at this point is forecast at between 10 million and 14 million tonnes. The Ukrainian wheat was in bad shape going into winter and It has probably suffered more losses. In addition to the dry weather in the southern U.S. there has been little or no precipitation in the northern Plains and the western Corn Belt states. Forecast maps show above normal precipitation in the region over the March through May period. With the spring planting season only a couple of months away, the region will need above normal precipitation to recharge soil moisture supplies. - Pork Network.
